Analyzing Bo Horvat’s Next Contract

With the start of the preseason looming, the Vancouver Canucks have just one restricted free agent left to sign. Unfortunately for them, this free agent happens to be one of their most important players going forward. In his three seasons as a Canuck, Bo Horvat has emerged as one of the team’s brightest stars, making this an important deal for General Manager Jim Benning to get right. Over the past few weeks, a couple of different scenarios have been thrown out by journalists connected to the situation. Jason Botchford has said that the Canucks are close to signing Horvat to a bridge deal, while both Rick Dhaliwal and Elliotte Friedman have suggested the possibility of a longer term contract.

In addition to the speculated long-term deal, Friedman mentioned a couple of comparables used by both the team and Horvat’s camp. According to the insider, the Canucks have brought up Jonathan Drouin of Montreal and his $5.5 million cap hit, whereas Horvat and his agent are seeking a $6 million per year deal similar to that of Florida’s Aleksander Barkov.

If Friedman is correct here (and he usually is), it seems like both sides are getting very close to signing a long-term deal at somewhere in the upper $5 million range. Is this a good deal for the Canucks? Let’s take a look at some of the recent restricted free agent deals around this price range, and see how they compare to what both Bo Horvat and the Canucks have asked for.

Source: CapFriendly.com

Horvat clearly belongs in this echelon of players (perhaps with the exception of Barkov, coincidentally enough), although his scoring numbers are lagging behind the rest of the group. The Barkov ask from the Horvat camp seems like an anchor used to try and steer the negotiations towards this higher price range, and if Elliotte Friedman is to be believed, it seems to be working. Even the team’s reported ask seems higher than it should be, at least when compared to players like Alexander Wennberg and Vincent Trocheck who have produced more in similar situations. If we’re going off of what the market has dictated for players with Horvat’s production, even a cap hit around $5 million on a 6 year term seems a little pricey.

In fairness, a lot of this will depend on the term of the contract. No one has been specific about the term; we’re relying on rumours of the deal being either a “bridge deal” or a “long-term deal”. The 6 year figure is simply a guess based on what most of the players in this situation have garnered recently. If the two sides agree to a 7 or 8 year contract — in which more unrestricted free agent years are being bought up — the high price tag starts to become a little more reasonable. In that case, Sean Monahan’s 7 year contract signed last summer would be a good starting point. While Horvat’s achievements thus far fall a little short of Monahan’s, anything under $6 million per year looks fair in comparison to the $6.375 million Monahan will make.

Let’s assume that Horvat and the Canucks decide to meet in the middle, and agree to a contract somewhere around 6 years at $5.75 million per season. At this term, it’s likely a slight overpayment, but certainly not enough to call it a bad contract. One would hope that the team manages to either get the term to 7 or 8 years, or brings the average annual value closer to the $5 million mark. If the team can’t manage either of these things, at least there are worse players to be overpaying for than your young, potential first-line center for the next decade.